Today is the sequel of the Mark Pope vs. John Calipari matchup.
Last season, in a heavy anticipated return to Rupp Arena as the head coach of Arkansas, John Calipari and the Razorbacks defeated Kentucky on their own floor with a final score of 89-79. It was a must-see game and the most expensive ticket in College Basketball of any game all year. The opposing team and former UK coach would leave with the upper hand, and 1-0 in this newly sparked series.
Today the Wildcats will get a chance at revenge as they are in Fayetteville to take on the Razorbacks in Bud Walton Arena. They’ll face another tall task as they are underdogs to a top-15 team that’s 11-0 at home this season.
Kentucky has played in five true road games thus far, coming against Louisville, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and the most recent being at Vanderbilt. Kentucky is 2-3 in those games and if we’re being honest with ourselves they easily could have been 0-5 if it wasn’t for the game-winning last-second shot by Malachi Moreno at LSU and the late-game comeback in the final minutes at Tennessee. Without those two ‘last second’ wins, Kentucky would be finding themselves winless in true road games this season. They’ve yet to earn a dominant road win that would convince you that they have what it takes to do so today.
Coincidentally, both former Kentucky head coach and current Kentucky head coach, John Calipari and Mark Pope, are each at 57 total games coached at their new schools. Through those first 57, they are both 38-19 overall going into today’s matchup. Yes, the same exact record. So, the perception that Calipari is out-coaching Mark Pope is just not factual when it comes to wins and losses. With that being said, the winner of today’s game will finally take the lead in this statistic.
Earlier this week, Mark Pope spoke with the media to preview today’s matchup against #15 Arkansas. Pope also gave some updates regarding the status of both Jayden Quaintance (knee) and Kam Williams (foot surgery). You can listen to that interview below.
Bud Walton Arena is a rough environment to play in, especially when Kentucky comes to town. That along with the injuries for the Wildcats, plus their lack of identity, puts Kentucky as a 7.5 point underdog according to DraftKings Sportsbook. This is similar to the point spread that Kentucky had against Vanderbilt this past Tuesday night in which they lost by 25.
When you compare both the offensive and defensive production of Arkansas and Kentucky, the Wildcats are notably better than the Razorback, on paper. Arkansas allows 77.2 PPG while Kentucky only allows opponents to score 70.8 PPG on average. Also, Arkansas allows opponents to shoot 50.5% from the field and Kentucky allows a lower opponent shooting percentage at 47.5% a game. However, things balance out on the offensive side as Arkansas has the advantage in this category. The Razorbacks are averaging 89.3 PPG which is over eight points more than Kentucky is per game at 81.2 PPG. Leading the way for Arkansas also is their field goal percentage and assists per game, taking the charge over Kentucky in the category.
Weirdly enough, I think Kentucky matches up better against Arkansas than most teams do. Last Tuesday night, Vanderbilt tried to slow Kentucky down into a more half-court style offense. This hurt Kentucky because they like to push the ball and get out in transition. Traditionally, John Calipari’s teams like to push the tempo as well which could help the Wildcats if they can get into a back-and-forth transitional battle.
In order to win, Kentucky is going to have to get after it defensively. Arkansas has several guards that could go off on any given night and they need to cap them out at a certain point. Maleek Thomas and Darius Acuff are scoring threats and Kentucky will have their hands full with these two defensively.
Secondly, Kentucky has to win the rebounding battle. If Arkansas is given second chance opportunities, they will make you pay endlessly. Their athleticism and ability to play above the rim is something Kentucky can’t matchup with very well, so putting in the effort to get additional shots by rebounding the offensive misses will help you and limit them.
As much as I want to believe that Kentucky has a chance to get back into the win column today, I think I tend to agree with the experts on today’s outcome. Right now I don’t think this Kentucky team is in a good spot mentally as a group, so I don’t expect them to come together and grind out the win. That could change if they get off to a hot start and see their shots falling, but if not and they dig themselves into another large first half deficit early, then this one could get really ugly once again. There’s a passion around these two teams to beat each other and the leading team won’t let off the gas once they’re ahead.
I unfortunately think Kentucky loses this one with a final score of 84-75. What are your thoughts or final score predictions? Let us know in the comments.
Did you enjoy this article? If so, you can stay connected with the growing Cats Coverage site by following them on Facebook or X/Twitter to never miss another post!
Leave a Reply