Like I stated yesterday, the motto of March is to survive and advance. Kentucky (9) managed to do that again today as they defeated the Missouri Tigers (8) with a final score of 78-72 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. This also marks the first time that Kentucky has won two games in their conference tournament since 2019.

Taking down LSU (16) and Missouri, the ‘Cats have taken care of business in Nashville this week. On Friday, they’re up for arguably their hardest challenge of the entire event — the top overall seed Florida Gators. We knew this was a possibility when Kentucky was tabbed with the nine seed selection in the conference tournament instead of the 10 seed which would have put them on the other side of the bracket, but it’s happened, and here we are.

I am not a man of moral victories, there’s for sure a winner and a loser, but Kentucky did manage to play the Gators relatively well on both occasions this season. Despite trailing for all 80 minutes they’ve played each other this season, they’ve kept the margin of victory under 10 both on the road (lost by 9) and at home (lost by 7) after a late comeback that ultimately fell short.

Florida hasn’t played a game since last Saturday, March 7th, in Lexington, and Kentucky has already played two games in two days this week. You could look at this a couple of different ways. It could benefit the Wildcats as they have had time to get a feel for the arena (Bridgestone Arena) and are riding momentum in two down-the-stretch close out games, or you could look at it as Florida will have fresh legs and are looking to put their foot on the gas and go back-to-back as SEC Tournament Champs. Either way is fair, but it comes down to the same 40 minutes of basketball it would be for anyone, and Florida can be beaten.

Last Saturday when Kentucky played host to the Gators the Wildcats were a +5.5 point underdog according to many sports books, and as you might imagine Kentucky is an even bigger underdog for today’s matchup. The Wildcats are a +11.5 point underdog in their third go-around. If it were me, I would take Kentucky covering the spread everyday at that much (don’t take my advice). I know it is a ‘neutral court’ game, however, Kentucky fans flood into Nashville to support their Wildcats every single chance they get and I expect even more to head down now that Kentucky has made it to the weekend. Bridgestone Arena is a Kentucky home game for these matchups and all it takes is for the Wildcats to just play better basketball than who’s in front of them.

One angle that sticks with me going into Friday’s game is that it’s really hard to beat the same team three times in one season. On the third time you face whatever team that is, there’s likely no more surprises. You should know what their strengths/weaknesses are and how to take advantage of them. Now, will the third time be the charm for Kentucky vs. Florida this season? The odds are definitely against the Wildcats. But I am riding that to give me hope today.

I’ll reiterate what I stated earlier, I think Kentucky likely covers the spread like they have in half of their games in the SEC this season. With that being said, this Florida team is extremely talented and well coached. They are one of the top-three teams in the country if I am being honest. I am going to predict with my mind and not my heart on this one — I have Florida winning with a score of 88-79 to end Kentucky’s run in the 2026 SEC Tournament.

What are your thoughts and opinions about the game and let’s hear your predictions! Make sure you let us know in the comments.

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